20. Waiting on the Fed

DISCLAIMER: This is a simulated educational exercise using paper trading fake money. This is not investment advice and is not intended to be copied.

NOTE – I updated the portfolio reporting today to be more accurate moving forward. I will update previous posts later, but please disregard the difference between May 1 and May 2 for this change.

TLDR

  • Trades today
    • SOLD -1 CI 100 5 MAY 23 245 PUT @3.50
    • SOLD -1 ABNB 100 12 MAY 23 112 PUT @2.44
  • Premiums on ENPH calls were not enticing enough to write, yet again

Today In Review

Basically exactly like yesterday, I was very busy and had to move fast. I was primarily concerned with my ENPH position first, then looking for other deals second.

ENPH

ENPH premiums were still low.

As you can see, once you get just a few dollars outside the money the premiums fall sub $1. This isn’t too satisfying in general, but it’s compounded by the fact that my AI isn’t showing any safe bets above the current price. I suppose it’s picking up on it being oversold, and doesn’t know where the next landing spot is. So I didn’t write any calls today because I couldn’t stomach the risk. Tomorrow I will probably write something, there will be less time value but might as well earn a cup of coffee this week while my stock sits.

CI

With ENPH out of the way, I noticed the AI was flashing green indicators for CI. One of the models was showing a line of support around $245 (while trading at $250) and a second model was indicating a relatively flat price over the next several days:

When I pulled open my favorite technicals, I saw a similar story:

Specifically my observations were that the RSI and Bollinger Bands indicate mildly oversold, as well as a line of resistance recently tested just about $245. When I looked at the premiums, they were rather meaty. So I decided to jump in a wrote a $245 put for $3.50 premium with 3 DTE.

ABNB

I had a few more minutes remaining and was interested in the fact that all the models were lighting up on ABNB:

I’m not entirely sure what it was seeing however, as all of the usual technicals were flashing overbought:

The last few situations like this my AI came out positive. So I decided to give this one a go, since ABNB is a fairly fun stock that is likely to continue to go up in the summer with seasonal earnings beats.

The premiums for this week weren’t all that great, but expiring next Friday had better deals. ABNB was trading at ~$120 and I could get a $2.44 premium for a $112 strike expiring 12 May. So I figured that gives me positive entry up to just under $110, which happens to be a line of resistance and is below the 200 day EMA. So I felt like that was a good bet to take, and I wrote the option

Portfolio Standings (WIP formatting)

Portfolio Value (Open)$ 98,634.00 
Portfolio Value (Close)$ 98,028.00 
Change (Day)( 0.16% )
Change (Tot)( 1.97% )
Free Cash (Close)$ 17,580.00
Escrowed Cash (Close)$ 65,248.00 
Equities (Close)$ 15,200.00 
Trades Made Today2
Tuesday, 2 May 2023 Report

Closing Thoughts

While I added over $500 in premiums today the overall portfolio value dropped due to ENPH’s price dropping from $164 to $152. I’ve collected almost $4k in premiums total so far, so once ENPH recovers I’ll be in a pretty good spot.

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