13. Navigating ITM
DISCLAIMER: This is a simulated educational exercise using paper trading fake money. This is not investment advice and is not intended to be copied.
TLDR
- Trades today
- Bought (to close) 1 TSLA 100 21 APR 23 170 PUT @3.95
- SOLD -1 TEAM 100 21 APR 23 157 PUT @1.75
- Closed my TSLA position at a loss to avoid being put the stock due to large possible downside
- Gambling on an ITM TEAM position with 1DTE based on technicals
Today In Review
Yesterday I left the day thinking today I would close out my NFLX position and leave the TSLA open. I did exactly the opposite.
First thing on my mind this morning were these two positions, as they were both ITM and looking like I was going to own some shares. When I looked at TSLA, I saw something concerning. Based on where it was trading, there didn’t appear to be much if any resistance under it for another $60:
Now, I’m not sure it will drop to its Jan lows based just on this. At the end of the day they are still shipping cars in large volume, so I think it probably won’t. However with the clock ticking and money on the line I decided I may as well take a small capital loss on the trade since I was still ahead of my target anyway. So I closed my position.
With that closed, I had a little more breathing room for NFLX. NFLX was trading still about $7 above the breakeven price on the put ($325 vs $318). I made a quick assumption that the biggest sell pressure is past, and it’s unlikely to fall another $7 in the next day. So I took a gamble and kept the position open. I could have closed it at a ~60% profit, but there’s still a $5 premium on it that I would love to retain for the next day.
With those out of the way and more capital available I was able to turn to today’s picks:
TEAM jumped out to me as it hasn’t recently been on the board. It’s not usually a stock I would want to play with, but I figured I may as well look. The AI was really indicating the $157 line (while it was trading at $158) was a decent bet to look at. So next I checked the technicals and much to my surprise I saw a similar story. Firstly it was right at a tested line of resistance:
Secondly the Bollinger Bands and RSI were both indicating it is likely oversold
Finally the option chain was also pricing in very little downward movement:
With my recent loss on TSLA in mind, and only 1 DTE, the $157 premium looked very attractive, with a breakeven price around $155.75. So I decided to take this gamble and wrote that put.
Portfolio Standings
Portfolio Value (Open) | $ 102,226.00 |
Portfolio Value (Close) | $ 102,006.00 |
Change (Day) | (0.22)% |
Change (Tot) | 2.01% |
Buying Power (Close) | $ 22,850.00 |
Trades Made Today | 2 |
Closing Thoughts
I have 4 contracts expiring tomorrow. Will keep an eye on some to see if I need to close early, but otherwise expect Friday to be a sit on my hands and do nothing type of day.