13. Navigating ITM

DISCLAIMER: This is a simulated educational exercise using paper trading fake money. This is not investment advice and is not intended to be copied.

TLDR

  • Trades today
    • Bought (to close) 1 TSLA 100 21 APR 23 170 PUT @3.95
    • SOLD -1 TEAM 100 21 APR 23 157 PUT @1.75
  • Closed my TSLA position at a loss to avoid being put the stock due to large possible downside
  • Gambling on an ITM TEAM position with 1DTE based on technicals

Today In Review

Yesterday I left the day thinking today I would close out my NFLX position and leave the TSLA open. I did exactly the opposite.

First thing on my mind this morning were these two positions, as they were both ITM and looking like I was going to own some shares. When I looked at TSLA, I saw something concerning. Based on where it was trading, there didn’t appear to be much if any resistance under it for another $60:

Now, I’m not sure it will drop to its Jan lows based just on this. At the end of the day they are still shipping cars in large volume, so I think it probably won’t. However with the clock ticking and money on the line I decided I may as well take a small capital loss on the trade since I was still ahead of my target anyway. So I closed my position.

With that closed, I had a little more breathing room for NFLX. NFLX was trading still about $7 above the breakeven price on the put ($325 vs $318). I made a quick assumption that the biggest sell pressure is past, and it’s unlikely to fall another $7 in the next day. So I took a gamble and kept the position open. I could have closed it at a ~60% profit, but there’s still a $5 premium on it that I would love to retain for the next day.

With those out of the way and more capital available I was able to turn to today’s picks:

TEAM jumped out to me as it hasn’t recently been on the board. It’s not usually a stock I would want to play with, but I figured I may as well look. The AI was really indicating the $157 line (while it was trading at $158) was a decent bet to look at. So next I checked the technicals and much to my surprise I saw a similar story. Firstly it was right at a tested line of resistance:

Secondly the Bollinger Bands and RSI were both indicating it is likely oversold

Finally the option chain was also pricing in very little downward movement:

With my recent loss on TSLA in mind, and only 1 DTE, the $157 premium looked very attractive, with a breakeven price around $155.75. So I decided to take this gamble and wrote that put.

Portfolio Standings

Portfolio Value (Open)$ 102,226.00
Portfolio Value (Close)$ 102,006.00
Change (Day)(0.22)%
Change (Tot)2.01%
Buying Power (Close)$ 22,850.00
Trades Made Today2
Thursday, 20 April 2023 Report

Closing Thoughts

I have 4 contracts expiring tomorrow. Will keep an eye on some to see if I need to close early, but otherwise expect Friday to be a sit on my hands and do nothing type of day.

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